branchinator {l Wrote}:There is a pretty direct correlation between ERA and the quality of a pitcher. Sure, it doesn't tell the whole story but calling ERA a "useless" stat is pretty stupid or makes someone look like a pretentious stat nerd. ERA is the bottom line.
I agree its the bottom line when considering the pitcher in isolation. The bottom line overall is wins, however. Either way, neither wins nor ERA are useless. In fact they are very important.
The core of this argument is that the VORP nerds don't like anything that can't be measured. They hate that Derek Jeter is considered to be great because he shouldn't be credited for team success, think Rajon Rondo is more important to the success if the Celtics than Kevin Garnett because his stats are better, and cringe when you say the word clutch because they think the sample size is too small and that things will even out over time. The other side of the coin thinks that the impact of Jeter on the Yankees is undeniable yet uncaptured by the measurables, that the fact that the Celtics sucked in the 08 playoffs and for 15 games this year without Garnett and with Rondo is a fact inescapable, yet inexplicable by statistics, and would rather have a guy on the mound with a history of big game performances or a guy at the plate who has a history of clutch hits.
The difference between the two is that the former group is a cult. Nothing exists that cannot be explained by statistics. The oldtimers are idiots, because they can't see what is right before their eyes - NUMBERS! The latter group generally recognizes that there are all sorts of statistics that can measure a whole sort of things, but many are meaniningless.
The pinnacle of this was baseball tonight last night. Baseball has officially recognized "barehanded plays" and "glove flips" as statistics. In response, Kruk says "it tells you something - it tells you how many barehanded flips a guy makes." Even noted Moneyball failure JP Riccardi says "sure its a good stat, but I am not sure how relevant it is to anything."
At the end of the day, we can all agree Joe Morgan is an idiot. The statsistics cult is the flip side of the same coin. Baseball is a sport played by humans.